Website Logo
Website Logo
Top Decoration

Insights
on investments, markets and our community

Perspectives from
Goelzer's team of experts

Bottom Decoration

November 6, 2024: A Cooling Market for U.S. Workers

After two light weeks of economic news, last week brought a surfeit of economic data releases and corporate earnings reports. Among the former, investors received two reports on the U.S.

Read more...

October 30, 2024: Stock Market Stability Belies Bond Market Volatility

As the stock market continues to notch new highs, underlying uncertainty may go unnoticed. While the stock market projects calm, increased volatility is clearly visible in the bond market. You

Read more...

October 23, 2024: The Federal Reserve Cuts Rates—And Rates Go Up

For much of 2024, many homeowners held hopes to refinance their 7-8% mortgages into lower-interest loans as interest rates fell. Those hopes likely grew later in the summer as the

Read more...

Rates Are Coming Down. Now What?

As we enter the fourth quarter we can make a prediction with reasonable confidence: short-term interest rates will move lower over the next 12-18 months. In fact, they have already

Read more...

October 9, 2024: Will the Small Fish Catch Up to the Big Whales?

2024 is set to mark the fourth consecutive year of small-cap stock returns lagging large-cap stock returns. But optimism has surfaced on the horizon. Analyst forecasts point to parity in

Read more...

October 2, 2024: How Restrictive Are Interest Rates?

Long awaited stimulative actions from the Chinese government captivated investor attention last week. Whether these actions deliver their intended jolt to China’s economy remains to be seen. Indisputable, however, was

Read more...

September 25, 2024: Another Atypical Rate-Cut Cycle

Periods in which the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates have typically been positive for equities. Moreover, defensive stocks, such as those found in the consumer-staples sector, have tended to outperform

Read more...

Where Have All the Public Companies Gone?

A frequent topic in the financial world has been the downward trend in the number of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock markets. Peaking back in the mid-1990s at

Read more...

September 18, 2024: The Descent Is the Hardest Part

This week the Federal Reserve will almost certainly join other major central banks in easing monetary policy. It has been a long time coming. The Federal Funds target rate reached

Read more...

September 11, 2024: An Unpleasant, Yet Ordinary, Week in the Stock Market

For investors in U.S. stocks, last week’s 4.2% decline, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, was unpleasant but certainly not unique. In fact, declines of that size occur regularly

Read more...

August 28, 2024: Rate Cuts Are Coming… But How Many?

Last Friday in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the Federal Reserve will move its target interest rate lower next month. This move will come after

Read more...

August 21, 2024: A Bad Dream, or More to Come?

The market’s recent days of volatility might feel today like the distant past. Last week, the S&P posted its strongest weekly performance since last November, pushing the index higher and

Read more...

August 14, 2024: Return to Normal: Negative Stock-Bond Correlations

We have seen a notable shift in stock-bond correlations this year as inflation declines. Historically, high inflation leads to positive correlations, meaning stocks and bonds move in the same direction,

Read more...

August 8, 2024: Volatility Awakens from Its Slumbers

This Monday’s trading day offered two historic market moves. The 12%, single-day drop in Japan’s Nikkei stock-market index was the largest decline in that index since 1987. Domestically, the so-called

Read more...

July 31, 2024: A Welcome Rally in Beleaguered Stocks

A rotation out of the crowded AI trade has benefited beleaguered small cap and value stocks. A historically narrow market, led by a handful of large tech companies, left many

Read more...

July 24, 2024: Stay Focused on Earnings

Last week’s economic releases delivered a mixed picture. On the one hand, a better-than-expected retail sales report signaled that consumer spending continues to expand—at a slower rate than last year,

Read more...

July 17, 2024: The Economy Cools & Earnings Estimates Warm Up

The flurry of earnings reports is about to begin, and the primary question for investors this season is how the gap between weakening macroeconomic data will reconcile with optimistic, bottom-up

Read more...

Investment Implications of This Year’s Election

We are frequently asked about the upcoming U.S. election and how the results of that election might affect the economy and markets. What follows is a concise summary of certain

Read more...

July 10, 2024: Why Interest Rate Cuts Are Becoming More Likely

The Fourth of July holiday may have shortened last week’s trading schedule, but the holiday could not keep investors from growing increasingly focused on the probability of interest rate cuts

Read more...

June 26, 2024: How Nvidia Became “The Most Important Stock in the World”

Since the beginning of May, Nvidia’s stock has appreciated 42%. Such a two-month move in a stock is not in itself unusual. However, this level of stock appreciation is unusual

Read more...

June 19, 2024: Positive News on the Inflation Front

A few months ago, an unorthodox economic theory began to gather attention. Rather than constraining economic activity, could higher interest rates instead be stimulating it? The question seemed timely. Despite

Read more...

June 12, 2024: Understanding Inflation Measures

When interpreting this week’s CPI report, it is important to note that inflation measures are not created equal.   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is based on a fixed basket

Read more...

June 5, 2024: The Fed Model: A Questionable Timing Tool

For much of the past 15 years, low bond yields have helped push up stock prices as investors found few alternatives to stocks in attempting to reach their return objectives.

Read more...

May 22, 2024: Opportunities in Artificial Intelligence

With Memorial Day weekend and a quiet week of economic news ahead, the market is laser-focused on this week’s earnings report from NDIVIA, considered by many to be the bellwether

Read more...

May 15, 2024: Why Are Consumers Pessimistic?

Last week’s consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan reaffirmed that consumers are feeling increasingly negative about the economy. These negative sentiments persist despite jobs growing at an average

Read more...

May 8, 2024: A Strong Start to the Year in Corporate Earnings

High interest rates, global conflict, problems in commercial real estate—despite these ongoing concerns, the U.S. corporate juggernaut carries forward. Through Monday, over 85% of companies in the S&P 500 Index

Read more...

May 1, 2024: Why Budget Deficits Matter

This week, investors will digest a litany of economic data, including updates on the U.S. job market and on manufacturing and service activity. These releases come amid a busy week

Read more...

Narrow Stock Market, Again

Last year, we published two quarterly Insights papers noting the narrow performance of the U.S. stock market, and for good reason. Over half of the S&P 500 Index’s 24.2% price

Read more...

MarketWatch, January 19, 2024

I want my son to inherit my $1.2 million house. Should I leave it to my second husband in my will? He promised to pass it on.   Director of

Read more...

Our Annual Look into the Future

For all but a few prognosticators, 2023 was a humbling one. As we mentioned in last quarter’s Insights, most economists entered 2023 predicting a recession. And stock market forecasters were

Read more...

Where’s My Recession?

In the mid-2000s, author Daniel H. Wilson published “Where’s My Jetpack?,” a book for frustrated futurists in search of techno wonders promised long ago. Somewhat like Wilson, investors have spent

Read more...

MarketWatch, August 14, 2023

Dear Tax Guy: I inherited a lake house, but want to give my share to my sister. How can we do this — and avoid paying taxes?   Director of

Read more...

Artificial Intelligence: Analysis from an Investment Perspective

During the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 Index returned 16.8% with nearly three-fourths of that performance coming from just ten companies.1 The dominating theme driving these lopsided returns

Read more...

The Narrow Stock Market: And the Trends That Got Us Here

Much has been written about the U.S. stock market’s narrow performance this year—and for good reason. At its most extreme, five months into the year, all of the S&P 500

Read more...

The Path to Normal

I am often asked, “When will things return to normal?” Despite their daily routines returning to normal, investors continue to feel the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic in the economy

Read more...

Thoughts on the Fallout from Silicon Valley Bank

In recent days, state banking authorities and the FDIC have closed three banks: Silvergate, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Both Silvergate and Signature Bank held a niche in

Read more...

Improved Expectations

Investors have been through a volatile multi-year stretch. The combination of a worldwide pandemic and erratic monetary policy led to 20% or greater declines for U.S. stock prices in three

Read more...

MarketWatch, December 27, 2022

Dear Tax Guy: I bought a portable oxygen concentrator for a friend with terminal cancer. Could it be a charitable donation?   Senior Wealth Advisor Michelle Jann reviews some of

Read more...

MarketWatch, December 21, 2022

Opinion: RMD calculation for charitable contributions: Here’s the most tax-efficient way to give   Senior Wealth Advisor Michelle Jann reviews the benefits of qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) for MarketWatch readers.

Read more...

TD Ameritrade Network, December 16, 2022

The Best Way to Construct a Portfolio in Today’s Market   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens, CFA, joined “Morning Trade Live” host Oliver Renick to talk about fixed income,

Read more...

When Good News Is Bad News

As this difficult year for investors moves ahead, a peculiar logic is taking hold over the markets: what is good is bad, and what is bad is good. In other

Read more...

The Bond Buyer, July 28, 2022

Munis follow UST rally post-weak GDP; fund inflows return   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens, CFA, tells The Bond Buyer that most of the damage to bonds is finished

Read more...

MarketWatch, July 26, 2022

Here’s the threat to markets if investors ignore ‘nontrivial’ stagflation risk   In a current state of stagflation, Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens provided commentary to MarketWatch about how

Read more...

The Rising Value of Money

In our April 2021 edition of Insights, I wrote that inflation would become the new worry for investors. With the consumer price index above 8% the past three months, that

Read more...

The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022

Stocks Wobble as Powell Testifies Before Congress   Director of Porfolio Management Gavin Stephens spoke to The Wall Street Journal about recent market moves and recession indicators.   To read

Read more...

Life’s Third Act Podcast, June 21, 2022

A discussion on markets and Goelzer’s expansion into St. Louis   Don Hutchinson and Brett Stehl discuss the economy and inflation, market strategies and Goelzer’s expansion into St. Louis with

Read more...

FIN-News, June 9, 2022

Investment Advisor Adds Institutional Consultant   FIN-News, which provides insights on the institutional asset management space, reported on our hiring of Brett Stehl as an institutional consultant as we grow

Read more...

CNN Business, May 16, 2022

Stocks could fall a lot further   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens is quoted on whether the Fed will stay the course and hike rates, despite the stock market

Read more...

Is a Fed Put in Play?

Will declining stock prices cause the Federal Reserve to alter its course?     May 2022   During the last hiking cycle—a slow, deliberate cycle that began in December 2015—investors

Read more...

The Bond Buyer, April 27, 2022

Munis steady in their own lane amid UST volatility   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens speaks about time-sensitive opportunities in municipal bonds.   To read this article, please click

Read more...

On the Probability of Recession

April 2022   Prior to each of the past six U.S. economic recessions, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes has risen above the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds—a

Read more...

Reuters, April 22, 2022

Analysis: Some investors tiptoe back into Treasuries, as hawkish Fed clouds outlook   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens discusses Goelzer’s bond strategy amid a hawkish Fed.   To read

Read more...

The Bond Buyer, April 18, 2022

Munis hit on long end, play catch-up to Treasuries   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens’ commentary on the chances of a near-term recession is quoted.   To read this

Read more...

Sorting Through the Headwinds

April 2022   The new year has delivered a sharp jump in volatility across stock, bond, and commodities markets. Chart 1, for example, shows that daily price volatility for the

Read more...

War in Ukraine: Implications for the Economy and Markets

March 2022   Following Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, we have fielded many questions about potential spillover effects of the war on the global economy and on financial markets.

Read more...

MarketWatch, March 25, 2022

Stock-market investors should watch this part of the yield curve for the ‘best leading indicator of trouble ahead’   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens speaks to Joy Wiltermuth about

Read more...

The Bond Buyer, March 24, 2022

Munis hit hard on short end, damage felt along curve   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens’ commentary on the 3m/10y yield curve is quoted.   To read this article,

Read more...

Barron’s, March 23, 2022

The ‘Yield Curve’ Is Close to Inverting. A Different Curve Tells a More Upbeat Story   Director of Portfolio Management Gavin Stephens is quoted on why investors may be watching

Read more...

Our Annual Look to the Future

January 2022 “Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.” —DAVID BOWIE   We have made it our practice to begin each year with an update of our 10-year

Read more...

ESG Investing: What, Why, and Considerations for Successful Implementation

November 2021   Growing interest surrounding ESG investing, which stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance, requires institutional investors to be aware of the challenges and considerations in successfully implementing ESG

Read more...

Where Have the Vigilantes Gone?

October 2021 “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want

Read more...

When Volatility Matters

July 2021 Investing involves risks. One type of risk we all try to avoid is the permanent loss of money. But a more common risk faced by investors is temporary

Read more...

Inflation: The New Worry

April 2021 Investing is a never-ending struggle between worry and optimism. The past 14 months illustrated that better than any period in recent memory. Beginning with panicked selling set off

Read more...

Abnormal Economy, Abnormal Markets

October 2020 While still below January’s pre-pandemic level, the U.S. economy has made great progress since the lifting of lockdowns and restrictions. Yet today’s economy is far from normal and,

Read more...

The Recovery Begins

July 2020 We’ll start with good news: the recession that began in February has already ended. That is not to say that the economy is back to where it was

Read more...

Insights